America’s economy: Why so glum?

Posted: December 2, 2014 in economy
Tags: , ,

TIM DUY, one of the best writers on macro policy issues, is optimistic about America’s economy and wonders why more people aren’t:Overall, I find the pessimism (from the right and the left) inconsistent with the fact that despite the ups and downs of the quarterly data, throughout the recovery, GDP has grown at a fairly consistent rate…The US economy is far more resilient than it is given credit for. None of the downside risks of recent years have been sufficient to derail the recovery, nor will the supposed downside risks of next year…[M]y probability of recession in the next twelve months: 0%. I would place similar odds on the following twelve months as well…Perhaps, just perhaps, the US economic expansion has been consistently undersold, and continues to be undersold. It is worth considering that maybe it is time to just accept the good news without the desperate search for every dark cloud.Have we all been too pessimistic about the American economy? What attitude should we have?One metric might be a cross-country comparison. On that score one might suppose optimism is clearly warranted. America’s recovery is the envy of the rich world. On the other hand, that is not saying much. Being the best of the bunch when the bunch has done so miserably is not exactly reason for cheer. And while America is far more insulated from global ups and downs than other economies it …

via Economic Crisis http://ift.tt/12kGTqj

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