Britain’s recovery: The (not-so) green shoots of recovery

Posted: July 23, 2013 in economy
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Is Britain well on its way to ecoomic recovery or stuck in the doldrums? We are inviting experts in the field to comment on the recovery. Yesterday, Kevin Daly, UK economist for Goldman Sachs, argued for stronger forward guidance from the Bank of England. Today John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics asks whether the recovery is sustainable. Mr Van Reenen is head of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance and an expert on research and development, and innovation. His bio is here. A long march to the Sunny Uplands?IN THE last few weeks Britain has enjoyed some much-desired warm weather and some much-needed signs of an economic upturn. This has lifted the mood of the nation as well as the tenants of Downing Street. The Chancellor described the UK economy as a “patient coming out of intensive care”, presumably thanks to the skilful care of Dr. Osborne, who is proud to have his performance recorded on the new NHS database of economic surgeons.It feels curmudgeonly to pour cold water on this sunny disposition. Unfortunately, the IMF’s recent uprating of Britain’s predicted growth in 2013 was only from a miserly 0.7% to a meagre 0.9%. The excitement over NIESR’s 0.6% 2013Q2 GDP growth prediction shows our lack of ambition. The average growth rate over the last couple of centuries has averaged over 2%, so this is not a standard “recovery” where we expect growth to …

via Economic Crisis


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