Focus: Precarious predictions

Posted: December 7, 2012 in economy
Tags: , ,

EACH month The Economist asks a group of economists to predict GDP growth, consumer prices and current-account balances for 14 economies (see this month’s poll). Over the last 12 months the predictions for whole-year growth, informed by quarterly GDP releases, have changed drastically. The ongoing problems in Europe, slowing growth in emerging markets and a sluggish American recovery have bred pessimism. Only in three countries have the outlooks improved; most have been cut by a few percentage points. Sweden, which in the last quarter grew at its slowest rate since the 2009 recession, has had its forecast slashed by 3 percentage points over the year. Our forecasters expect better growth next year, but a lot can change in 12 months.

via Economic Crisis


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